The crystal ball, computed
The path to the final.
I replayed the whole tournament 20,000 times over the official bracket. Pick a country and see how far it likely goes — and who it meets each round.
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Netherlands
· group FChance to reach each round (odds-calibrated simulation, 20,000 runs).
Likely opponent in the Round of 32 (first knockout)
Conditional: if Netherlands reaches this round. Chance per opponent.
Likely opponent in the Round of 16
Conditional: if Netherlands reaches this round. Chance per opponent.
Likely opponent in the quarter-final
Conditional: if Netherlands reaches this round. Chance per opponent.
Likely opponent in the semi-final
Conditional: if Netherlands reaches this round. Chance per opponent.
Likely opponent in the final
Conditional: if Netherlands reaches this round. Chance per opponent.
Odds-calibrated simulation over the official FIFA bracket. Opponent chances beyond the quarter-finals get wide — read them as probabilities, not certainties.